A multiscaling‐based intensity–duration–frequency model for extreme precipitation          下载免费PDF全文

Hans Van de Vyver 《水文研究》2018,32(11):1635-1647

Rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are a standard tool in urban water resources engineering and management. They express how return levels of extreme rainfall intensity vary with duration. The simple scaling property of extreme rainfall intensity, with respect to duration, determines the form of IDF relationships. It is supposed that the annual maximum intensity follows the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. As well known, for simple scaling processes, the location parameter and scale parameter of the GEV distribution obey a power law with the same exponent. Although, the simple scaling hypothesis is commonly used as a suitable working assumption, the multiscaling approach provides a more general framework. We present a new IDF relationship that has been formulated on the basis of the multiscaling property. It turns out that the GEV parameters (location and scale) have a different scaling exponent. Next, we apply a Bayesian framework to estimate the multiscaling GEV model and to choose the most appropriate model. It is shown that the model performance increases when using the multiscaling approach. The new model for IDF curves reproduces the data very well and has a reasonable degree of complexity without overfitting on the data.  相似文献   

An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)     

Roberta Padulano  Alfredo Reder  Guido Rianna 《水文研究》2019,33(14):2020-2036

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.  相似文献   

地下结构抗震设计的改进等效反应加速度法     

禹海涛  张正伟  李攀 《岩土力学》2020,41(7):2401-2410

对地下结构横向抗震分析中的等效反应加速度法进行综合分析。结合算例，以动力时程法为基准，全面评价了等效反应加速度法的适用性；进而深入分析其误差来源，并做针对性改进优化，通过引入动力响应调整系数β，提出了一种改进等效反应加速度法；结合算例分析，评价了改进等效反应加速度法对不同工况的适用性。结果表明：等效反应加速度法计算所得结构内力及变形均偏小；且计算精度随地层剪切波速的增大整体呈上升趋势，但几乎不受结构埋深的影响；同时，明确了等效反应加速度法的误差源自于其忽略了地下结构对其周围土体动力响应的干扰作用，改进优化后提出了改进等效反应加速度法；相比现有等效反应加速度法，改进等效反应加速度法具有更广泛的适用性及更优的计算精度，可为地下结构抗震设计和分析提供新的计算方法。  相似文献   

春季季风间期赤道东印度洋浮游植物光合生理特征     

袁超  徐宗军  张学雷  韦钦胜  王辉武  王宗灵 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(6):83-91

Phytoplankton physiologies are dynamic and have sensitive responses to the ambient environment. In this paper,we examine photosynthetic physiologies of phytoplankton communities with Phyto-PAM in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean during the spring inter-monsoon. Environmental parameters were measured to investigate the coupling between phytoplankton photosynthetic physiologies and their habitats. During the cruise, the water column was highly stratified. The mixed layer extended to about 75 m and was characterized by high temperature(28°C) and low nutrient level. The F_v/F_m values and chlorophyll a(Chl a) concentrations were lower at the surface, as consequences of nutrient depletion and photo-inhibition. Subsurface Chl a maximum(SCM) occurred between 75 and 100 m, and had the highest F_v/F_m values. The formation of SCM was a balance between nutrient availability and light limitation. The SCM may contribute significantly to pelagic food web and primary production in the water column. Phytoplankton in different layers encountered different light, trophic and hydrographic dynamics and evolved distinct photosynthetic characteristics. Despite of co-limitation of nutrient limitation and photo-inhibition, phytoplankton in the surface layer showed their acclimation to high irradiance, had lower light utilization efficiencies(α: 0.061±0.032) and could exploit a wide range of light irradiance. Whereas, phytoplankton in the SCM layers presented the highest light utilization efficiencies(α:0.146±0.48), which guaranteed higher photosynthetic capacities under low light level. These results provide insights into phytoplankton photo-adaption strategies in this less explored region.  相似文献   

页岩气水平井TOC测井评价新方法     

刘伟男  张超谟  朱林奇  胡松  孔政  邓瑞 《物探与化探》2021,(2):423-431

由于存在地层缺失、井眼穿层不断变化、重点层段测井曲线较少、井眼环境复杂、测井响应值与储层参数关系较为复杂等特点,页岩气储层水平井测井解释难度较大。针对该问题,本文采用“水平井钻遇地层模型—水平井间及水平井与直井响应差异分析—水平井曲线校正—基于直井的参数评价模型”的评价技术流程,进行页岩气水平井TOC测井评价。在测井评价中,针对响应规律复杂的特点,采用直方图法进行测井响应规律分析,同时考虑到水平井测井曲线较少,为了综合利用测井曲线信息,结合曲线重叠方法提出双重信息融合评价模型。结果表明,本方法在充分分析测井响应差异的基础上对水平井测井曲线进行校正,且提出的双重信息融合模型具有能充分利用测井信息、评价精度高以及操作简单等优点。  相似文献   

不等边基四边形的等距曲线设计     

赵仑  刘海涛  嵇海旭  梁康养 《广东海洋大学学报》2011,31(1):80-83

根据等距曲线的成形原理和几何特性,讨论了在有条件下的不等边基四边形等距曲线设计以及基四边形边长和形状的变化对等距曲线的影响,阐述了等距曲线的图形设计原则、轮廓曲线作图方法并加以证明,从而确定了不等边基四边形的设计作图范围和应用特性,扩展了机械传动机构型面联接中的等距曲线设计途径和方法。  相似文献   

辉绿岩裂缝对其磁组构的影响          下载免费PDF全文

石林权  沈忠悦  潘小青  李明月  张志亮 《高校地质学报》2015,21(2):223

磁组构是由岩石中磁性矿物定向分布而产生的组构特征,因此磁组构分析是研究岩石组构常用的技术手段,它具有 见效快、灵敏度高、无损样品等特点,近年来得到广泛应用。然而在磁组构研究工作中钻取定向样品或定向手标本时,常 常会遇到天然样品含有裂缝且裂缝中充填大量近地表沉积物和自生矿物。本文针对辉绿岩裂缝充填物对其磁组构结果的影 响程度做了详细研究,选用160个含裂缝的辉绿岩岩芯定向样品,通过对比去除裂缝充填物前后的磁组构变化,发现实验 前后所有样品磁化率大小变化率平均值<1%,磁组构方向变化平均值<1°,因此认为辉绿岩裂缝物质对其磁组构影响甚微。 矿物学和岩石磁学分析表明裂隙充填物主要为石英、长石,以及少量赤铁矿、黄铁矿和绿泥石等表生矿物。而辉绿岩的携 磁矿物主要是亚铁磁性的磁铁矿,其磁化率强度约为同等质量裂缝填充物的30倍,致使辉绿岩中的裂隙充填物对磁组构的 影响很小。  相似文献   

Rayleigh波勘探中“之”字形频散曲线“起跳点”频率研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

刘雪峰  凡友华 《地球物理学报》2011,54(8):2124-2135

当层状介质中存在低速层的时候,实际提取到的Rayleigh波频散曲线往往会发生“之”字形回折.已有研究表明,“之”字形回折与各模式的激发能量有关.特别的,“之”字形回折的“起跳点”(发生“之”字形回折的点)与介质参数有一定关系,因此在应用中它反映了介质的一些特征.但是,这一关系是怎样的还没有人进行详细研究.本文计算了三...  相似文献   

半刚接框架-斜加劲钢板剪力墙低周反复荷载试验研究     

郭宏超  郝际平  李峰 《地震工程与工程振动》2011,31(1):54-60

对一榀单跨两层半刚接框架-斜加劲钢板剪力墙结构进行了低周反复荷载试验,分析结构破坏模式和耗能机理,得到了承载力、延性、刚度、耗能能力等指标.结果表明:该种结构具有良好的延性和耗能性能,安全储备高;半刚框架和墙板协同工作良好;斜加劲肋的设置缓解了钢板沿拉力带方向的面外变形,提高了墙体的弹性屈曲倚载及初始刚度,减轻了滞回曲...  相似文献   

填充墙对底框结构地震反应的影响     

李樾  李鸿晶  施溪溪 《地震学刊》2011,(4):423-429

为研究填充墙对底层框架多层砌体房屋地震反应的影响,以典型的填充墙-底层框架多层砌体房屋为基础,建立有限元计算模型并进行了弹塑性动力时程分析。根据不同模型的计算结果以及填充墙的刚度和强度,分析了填充墙对底层框架多层砌体房屋自振周期、地震作用下房屋整体变形、底层框架的损伤以及填充墙与底层框架相互作用的影响。计算结果表明：填充墙对房屋整体地震反应产生明显影响,其影响不能忽略。在上部砌体结构质量和刚度不变的情况下,结构自振周期随着填充墙刚度的增加而降低;随着填充墙与底层框架之间连接作用的增强,结构整体的变形减小,底层框架的损伤增大。当填充墙与底层框架之间采用弱连接时,采用强度较高的填充墙可以提高结构整体的变形能力,从而提高结构整体的抗震能力。  相似文献